Real-money event contracts can fall under Indonesia’s gambling rules. The label “prediction market” and blockchain settlement do not decide the issue; the stake, payout and permissions attached to the product matter.
Are prediction markets legal in Indonesia?
Indonesia has no consumer betting licence for prediction markets. Real-money products therefore need a separate legal basis; free forecasts and regulated financial instruments require their own assessment.
How the Indonesian Criminal Code applies
Indonesia's revised Criminal Code, Kitab Undang-Undang Hukum Pidana (KUHP), treats offering gambling and taking part in it under separate provisions. An event-market case may therefore raise different questions for the operator and the user. See our Indonesian gambling-law explainer for the offence elements and penalties.
Why an event contract may be classified as gambling
In a typical yes/no market, a trader buys a position linked to a future event. The contract pays according to the outcome; some platforms use smart contracts to hold collateral and settle positions. Neither a market price nor automated settlement decides the legal classification.
Not every contingent financial instrument is gambling. Derivatives, insurance and securities may operate under specialised rules. The question is whether the particular event contract has a lawful financial classification and authorisation, rather than merely resembling an exchange-traded product.
What happened to Polymarket in May 2026?
On 22 May 2026, Komdigi announced that it had cut off access to Polymarket in Indonesia. Director General of Digital Space Supervision Alexander Sabar said platforms facilitating monetary bets on uncertain events remain online gambling regardless of their prediction-market branding, blockchain infrastructure or crypto assets. The ministry also said it was examining affiliated social-media accounts for further restrictions.
Contracts concerning President Prabowo Subianto’s tenure drew public attention, but Komdigi’s stated concern was monetary betting on uncertain outcomes, not the political subject of a particular contract.
Who faces legal and operational exposure?
Operators and offshore platforms
An offshore company can still face Indonesian access restrictions and investigation. Local advertising, Bahasa Indonesia campaigns, payment integrations and affiliates may be relevant to enforcement; their precise legal effect depends on the applicable rule.
Participants and retail users
A site that loads is not necessarily legal to use, and successful crypto funding establishes no permission. Participants may face a separate legal assessment from operators, alongside practical risks such as blocked withdrawals and limited recourse.
Publishers, influencers and affiliates
Publishers who send Indonesian users to a wagering service should check the gambling-promotion rules before buying or accepting a campaign.
Does using cryptocurrency or a VPN change the answer?
BTC, USDT and Web3 wallets change how value moves; a VPN changes how a site is reached. Neither alters the event contract itself. A smart contract can execute a payout, but it does not grant permission to offer or join the wager.
Bank Indonesia oversees payment systems; OJK supervises defined financial activities. Banks and payment providers may also apply anti-money-laundering checks and restrict gambling-related transactions. The ability to move funds through a bank, stablecoin or intermediary says nothing conclusive about the legality of the underlying contract.
OJK regulation and the regulatory sandbox: is there a route to approval?
OJK regulates digital financial assets, including crypto assets, under POJK 27/2024, its amendment POJK 23/2025 and PADK 3/2026, effective 1 September 2026. These rules cover specified digital-asset trading; they do not authorise prediction betting.
OJK also operates a regulatory sandbox. Entry can test a financial product, but it is not a licence for event betting. A company proposing a market needs to identify the Indonesian permission that covers its contract.
Comparing common prediction-market models
| Model | Typical feature | Indonesian legal consideration |
|---|---|---|
| Real-money outcome trading (for example, Polymarket-style markets) | Participants risk value for contingent returns | Directly aligns with the activity identified by Komdigi as online gambling |
| Overseas event-contract exchange (for example, Kalshi) | Contracts may be supervised under a foreign financial regime | Foreign oversight does not itself confer Indonesian permission |
| Play-money or reputation forecasting (for example, Metaculus or certain Manifold Markets formats) | Predictions may use points or non-redeemable balances | Potentially different risk profile; check whether value can be deposited, redeemed or won |
| Other forecasting products (including Myriad Markets or Futuur) | Features and funding arrangements vary | Evaluate the specific product, not its brand or category label |
A free-to-play label is not enough. Cash prizes, redeemable points, transferable tokens, entry fees and affiliate incentives can change the economic arrangement. Read the actual terms and redemption rules.
A practical compliance test before launch or participation
- Identify the stake. Can a user deposit fiat currency, crypto assets, tokens with transferable value or anything else economically valuable?
- Identify the payout. Is money, a redeemable token or a valuable prize awarded based on an uncertain event?
- Map the parties. Who operates the market, holds collateral, resolves outcomes, promotes the service and receives fees?
- Check Indonesian access and targeting. Does the product accept Indonesian residents or use local marketing and payment infrastructure?
- Verify authorisation. Is there a specific Indonesian legal basis and regulator-issued permission for this product, rather than only a foreign licence or a crypto registration?
- Review current enforcement. Check Komdigi announcements, applicable KUHP and UU ITE provisions and relevant OJK rules. Seek qualified Indonesian legal advice before handling funds or launching an offer.